Calculating attributable cancer incidence: an example from waste
A systematic review of the literature was conducted to derive the appropriate relative risk (Porta et al, 2009). This showed that the study by Elliott et al (2006) provides the best starting point for assessment (in terms of relative risk by distance from an incinerator).
Nevertheless, it is likely that the excess risk is not constant over time, but varies for a specific individual of the population at a give age and specific time as a function of various characteristics:
- level of attained cumulative exposure;
- latency since first exposure; and
- latency since cessation of exposure (if any).
We therefore need to assume a theoretical model of cancer occurrence and to impute the varying excess risk around different incinerators, as a function of the different characteristic of the plant and of the nearby population.
The attached excel file provides a simple calculator to estimate the attributable number of cancer cases in a specific population given a specific date of start of the plant.
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