European policy scenarios
Scenarios have become important tools for policy development. As a consequence, scenarios have been developed for a wide range of policy areas. The scenarios differ greatly in the way they have been devised, their geographic extent, the time period they cover and their level of detail. Many are ony broad descriptive storylines, outlining how the world may change under different sets of assumptions; others translate these into a series of indicators for key outcomes; a few provide detailed estimates of critical variables, based on modelling of the processes involved. All can offer useful starting points for scenario building, though for many applications further work may be necessary to fill in the details needed for the assessment.
The list below includes scenarios for some of the key themes relevant for environmental health, covering the EU area. It is restricted to recently developed scenarios that offer some degree of quantification of the outcome variables. Some of these are also available in the form of interactive tools, which allow users to select or amend specific elements of the scenario and run them for the area and/or time-period of their choice.
| Scenario name | Main policy area/compartment | Drivers of change | Geographical extent | Spatial resolution | Time-period | Sponsor/ owner |
| IPCC-SRES | Climate change | Greenhouse gas emissions | Global | Regional | 2000-2050 | IPCC |
| PRELUDE | Agricultural land use change | Regional/global trade, environmental attitudes/policies | EU27 | NUTS-2 | 2000-2030 | EU |
| PLANETS | Energy technologies and markets | Environmental policies, technology standards | Global, EU | Regional | 2010-2050 | EU |
| SULTAN | Transport volumes, composition | Environmental and transport policies | EU27 | EU27 | 2010-2050 | EU |
| SCENES | Water resources and sectoral use | Population change, economic change, EU policies, technology | Wider Europe/ N Africa | 5o x 5o | 2000-2025 | EU |
| DEMIFER | Population distribution and demographic structure | External/internal migration, demographic change | EU27 | NUTS-2 | 2005-2050 | EU |
| GEO-4 | Emissions, land use/biodiversity, water resources, technology, population | Economic/environmental policy | Global | Regional | 2000-2050 | UNEP |
| FORWAST | Waste generation (by sector), monetised enviornmental impact | Waste management policy/technology; population growth; economic change | EU27 | EU (and national) | 2000-2050 | EU |

