Scenarios have become important tools for policy development.  As a consequence, scenarios have been developed for a wide range of policy areas.  The scenarios differ greatly in the way they have been devised, their geographic extent, the time period they cover and their level of detail.  Many are ony broad descriptive storylines, outlining how the world may change under different sets of assumptions; others translate these into a series of indicators for key outcomes; a few provide detailed estimates of critical variables, based on modelling of the processes involved.  All can offer useful starting points for scenario building, though for many applications further work may be necessary to fill in the details needed for the assessment.

The list below includes scenarios for some of the key themes relevant for environmental health, covering the EU area.  It is restricted to recently developed scenarios that offer some degree of quantification of the outcome variables.  Some of these are also available in the form of interactive tools, which allow users to select or amend specific elements of the scenario and run them for the area and/or time-period of their choice.  

 

Scenario name Main policy area/compartment Drivers of change Geographical extent Spatial resolution Time-period Sponsor/ owner
IPCC-SRES Climate change Greenhouse gas emissions Global Regional 2000-2050 IPCC
PRELUDE Agricultural land use change Regional/global trade, environmental attitudes/policies EU27 NUTS-2 2000-2030 EU
PLANETS Energy technologies and markets Environmental policies, technology standards Global, EU Regional 2010-2050 EU
SULTAN Transport volumes, composition Environmental and transport policies EU27 EU27 2010-2050 EU
SCENES Water resources and sectoral use Population change, economic change, EU policies, technology Wider Europe/ N Africa 5o x 5o 2000-2025 EU
DEMIFER Population distribution and demographic structure External/internal migration, demographic change EU27 NUTS-2 2005-2050 EU
GEO-4 Emissions, land use/biodiversity, water resources, technology, population Economic/environmental policy Global Regional 2000-2050 UNEP
FORWAST Waste generation (by sector), monetised enviornmental impact Waste management policy/technology; population growth; economic change EU27 EU (and national) 2000-2050 EU