Expert elicitation: case study on ultrafine particles

A European expert panel was held on the health effects of ultrafine particles. The aims were

  1. to test the methodology described in the protocol for developing exposure response functions;
  2. to test the protocol for organizing an expert elicitation;
  3. an interest in the causal mechanisms underlying UFP-related health effects; and
  4. an interest in the exposure response functions for these health effects.

Two papers are published on this expert panel:

Hoek, G., Boogaard, H., et al. 2009 Concentration response functions for ultrafine particles and all-cause mortality and hospital admissions: results of a European expert panel elicitation.  Environmental Science and Technology 44, 476-482.

Knol, A. B., de Hartog, J.J. et al. 2009 Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways. Particle and Fibre Toxicology  6: 19.

Hoek et al. (2009) describes concentration-response functions of ultrafine particles and mortality and hospital admissions. The reported results by Knol et al. include information about the likelihood of a causal relationship between ultrafine particles and diverse adverse health effects together with potential mechanisms of action. The information elicted in the expert elicitation can be used in health impact assessment.