Figure 1 shows the assessment framework developed in the scoping phase. Scoping was based on a comprehensive literature review. Figure 2 shows how this broader picture was reduced to a more exclusive model for the purpose of assessment.

In the process from scoping diagram to final assessment framework, the following important inclusion/exclusion decisions were made:

• The changes in ambient UVR are only due to changes in ozone (under two different scenarios (SRES A2 and B1).  Recovery of the ozone layer is influenced by two factors: 1) future changes in the emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and 2) future atmospheric levels of relevant GHGs (CH4, N₂O). All other optical properties of the surface and the atmosphere are assumed to remain unchanged (e.g. albedo, cloud cover, aerosols etc). However, changes in cloud cover are included in the sensitivity analyses.
• As an exposure indicator, we use the average erythemal dose instead of biologically effective dose, in order to match available DRFs.
• The UVR assessment primarily focuses on the negative effects on skin cancer, because the estimated global burden of disease and the attributable fraction are relative high compared to other health outcomes (Lucas, McMichael et al. 2006).
• The projected increase in summer surface temperatures due to climate change (under two different scenarios) is expected to affect the future health impacts as well, although the mechanism is not clear (via increased exposure behaviour or via increased ambient UV). This process is assessed through a sensitivity analyses.
• Changes in adaptation and exposure behaviour are not included.
• Future population growth and changes in population structure (ageing) will be taken into account (under two different scenarios).
• Skin pigmentation will not play an important role, as the population in the case studies is primarily lightly pigmented (Lucas, McMichael et al. 2006); <stockticker>DRF</stockticker> and PAF for lightly pigmented populations are assumed to apply to the whole population of our cases.
• The WP3.7-UVR assessment focuses on (attributable) incident cases, mortality and disease burden (in DALY). Due to lack of adequate data, no further cost estimates are performed.

Note with figures: ODS= Ozone depleting substances; GHG=Greenhouse gasses; CH₄=methane; N₂O= nitrous dioxide; BCC=Basal cell carcinoma; SCC=squamous cell carcinoma; DALYs= Disability Adjusted Life Years; UVR= ultraviolet radiation